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The bank

14 questions
Monetary policy

If the RBI holds the repo rate steady but drains liquidity through VRRR, is policy tightening or not?

Model answer

It is a mild tightening. The headline repo rate is the signal, but what banks actually face is the overnight rate. Draining surplus cash via VRRR pushes the call rate up toward (or to) the repo rate, raising the effective cost of funds even though the policy rate is unchanged. So the stance on paper is neutral, but the operative stance tilts tighter.

Exchange rates

Why might a country with strong growth still see its currency depreciate?

Model answer

Currencies move on relative inflation, relative interest rates, and capital flows — not growth alone. Higher domestic inflation erodes the currency through purchasing-power parity; if global rates rise, capital can leave even a fast-growing economy; and a widening current-account deficit means more demand for foreign currency. Strong growth helps over the long run but can coincide with depreciation.

Fiscal policy

Is the fiscal multiplier larger when interest rates are stuck near zero?

Model answer

Yes, typically. Normally extra government spending pushes up interest rates and crowds out private investment, shrinking the multiplier. At the zero lower bound the central bank holds rates down, so crowding-out is muted and more of the stimulus flows through to output. This is the core case for fiscal policy in a liquidity trap.

Keynesian

If everyone tries to save more during a downturn, what happens to total saving?

Model answer

The paradox of thrift: an attempt to save more cuts consumption, which lowers aggregate demand and output. With lower income, realised saving may not rise — and can even fall — because saving depends on income. What is prudent for one household can be self-defeating for the economy as a whole.

Open economy

Can a central bank control both the exchange rate and the money supply at once?

Model answer

Not freely, under open capital markets — the 'impossible trinity'. A country can pick only two of: a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital flows. Defending a peg forces the money supply to follow reserve flows, surrendering monetary independence. India runs a managed float precisely to keep some monetary autonomy.

Macro theory

Why do sticky prices make monetary policy powerful in the short run but neutral in the long run?

Model answer

When prices and wages are slow to adjust, a change in the money supply or policy rate shifts real demand and output. Over time, prices fully adjust, real variables return to their natural levels, and money only changes the price level — 'long-run neutrality'. Stickiness is the bridge between the Keynesian short run and the Classical long run.

Fiscal policy

Does a budget deficit always crowd out private investment?

Model answer

Not always. Crowding out works through higher interest rates as the government borrows. But if there is slack (unemployed resources), accommodative monetary policy, or the spending raises productivity (infrastructure), it can 'crowd in' private investment instead. The effect depends on the state of the cycle and how the deficit is financed.

Monetary policy

Why is the real interest rate, not the nominal one, what drives investment?

Model answer

Firms care about the cost of borrowing in terms of goods, not rupees. The real rate (nominal minus expected inflation) is the true price of advancing consumption/investment. Two economies with the same nominal rate but different inflation face very different real costs — which is why expectations of inflation matter so much for policy.

Exchange rates

When is a weaker currency good news, and when is it a warning sign?

Model answer

A gradual depreciation in line with inflation differentials is normal and can aid exporters' competitiveness. It is a warning sign when it is sharp and disorderly, driven by capital flight, reserve loss, or loss of confidence — raising imported inflation and the cost of foreign-currency debt. Context (speed, cause, reserves) separates the two.

Inflation

Why can raising rates fail to slow inflation driven by supply shocks?

Model answer

Rate hikes work by cooling demand. A supply shock (oil, food, war) raises prices regardless of demand, so tightening does little to the source and mainly squeezes output and employment. Central banks still respond to stop expectations from un-anchoring, but they accept that monetary policy is a blunt tool against cost-push inflation.

Methodology

How can two economists see the same GDP figure and disagree on whether policy worked?

Model answer

Because the counterfactual is unobserved. Judging policy means comparing actual GDP to what would have happened without it — which no one can measure directly. Differences in models, assumptions about lags, and what is attributed to luck versus policy lead honest economists to different verdicts from the same number.

Monetary policy

Why might the same repo-rate cut transmit faster in one year than another?

Model answer

Transmission depends on banking-system liquidity, the share of loans linked to external benchmarks, competition for deposits, and bank balance-sheet health. With surplus liquidity and benchmark-linked lending, cuts pass through quickly; with stressed banks or tight liquidity, banks delay lowering lending rates. Structure, not just the policy rate, governs transmission.

External sector

Is a current account deficit a sign of weakness?

Model answer

Not necessarily. A CAD means a country invests more than it saves and imports capital — which can be healthy for a fast-growing economy building capacity. It becomes risky when financed by volatile short-term flows rather than stable FDI, or when it reflects consumption rather than investment. Composition and financing matter more than the headline.

Inflation

Why doesn't printing money to finance deficits always cause hyperinflation?

Model answer

In the short run, with slack and stable expectations, monetizing a deficit can raise output more than prices. Hyperinflation arises when money growth persistently outruns output and people lose faith in the currency, so velocity spikes. The danger is regime and expectations dependent — scale, persistence, and credibility decide the outcome.